On August 8, 2025, Net Zero Atlantic released a modelling and analysis report called, Mitigating Winter Peak Demand in a Decarbonizing Atlantic Canada: Exploring the Role of Hybrid Heating. The report provides seven recommendations, informed by modelling results and technical insights and based on the projected impacts of residential space heating electrification on winter peak demand and an exploration of the potential role of hybrid heating systems and other strategies to manage peak load during the energy transition.
With the growing number of modelling studies analyzing pathways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is now widely accepted that a large portion of energy services will shift to electricity. This transition requires a rapid and substantial transformation of the electricity supply system, which brings with it a number of planning, cost, and infrastructure challenges.
Using scenario-based modelling, this report provides region-specific insights into how residential heating electrification and population growth could affect winter peak electricity demand. The analysis focuses on hybrid heating systems as a transitional planning solution. Additionally, the report points to other promising strategies, such as demand-side management, energy storage, and smart energy management technologies, which were not modelled in this analysis but are important areas for future exploration.
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The analysis was conducted by Institut de l'énergie Trottier (IET) and Net Zero Atlantic using the Atlantic Canada Energy System (ACES) Model—a region-specific, bottom-up capacity expansion model designed to support long-term energy system planning. The study's findings were first reported as a webinar in July 2025 and now the full technical report is available for download.
Download the report and watch the webinar.