This pre-run scenario is a simple example created by Net Zero Atlantic to provide an overview of the ACES interactive visualizations. This “Example 2” scenario exemplifies a phase-out of coal by 2030, and provincially-imposed CO2e emission limits. Please note that the scenarios above are simple example scenarios and their outputs are not designed to be analyzed further. These are the descriptions for the types of plots above.
Capacity plots display the installed electricity generation capacity of new and existing generators over the model time horizon. Similar technologies are grouped together for simplicity -- e.g., all natural gas generators (combustion turbines, combined cycles, cogeneration) are grouped as “Natural Gas”. A model user can easily analyze retirements of and additions to the electricity generation infrastructure.
Similar to the capacity plots, the generation plots enable model users to view and analyze long-term trends in electricity generation. The overall electricity demand is determined endogenously: the technologies selected in other sectors to satisfy exogenously defined end-use demands, e.g., residential space heating, determine the overall electricity demand. Further analysis can provide valuable insights into the overall electricity demand by end-use sector (e.g., transportation).
For each model year, the hourly dispatch decisions of individual power plants are optimized over a set of representative days to minimize operational cost. ACES enables model users to analyze electricity generation, storage, imports, and exports on an hourly basis for each representative day. Each generator is subject to generator-specific constraints. For example: (1) Thermal units are constrained by their ramp rates. (2) Generation from run-of-river hydro, wind, and solar technologies are governed by hourly capacity factors. (3) “Dispatchable” hydro assets must respect annual energy budgets. (4) “Dispatch Limited” hydro assets must respect daily energy budgets.
ACES enables model users to analyze the costs and GHG emission profiles of each modelled scenario by sector. The model user has the choice to enable direct air capture technologies and other carbon sinks in the model. This might provide valuable insights regarding which scenarios are only feasible with technologies that are currently not available at scale.
Scenario results are available in Excel format, or download the full SQL database and run the model yourself.